It is nearly a truism at this level, however there may be arguably no firm within the video games trade that protects its secrecy fairly as intently or in addition to Nintendo.
Its tight management over details about its upcoming merchandise not often slips, and any third-party studio that has ever labored on a Nintendo property can vouch for the way severely the corporate takes data management and leak prevention.
The outcomes are onerous to disagree with; it is hanging that the Nintendo Direct showcase which simply wrapped up the nebulous (however very satisfying) not-E3 season was filled with major reveals about which we had had no prior inkling.
Different corporations do generally handle to tug off real surprises, however it’s nonetheless widespread for showcase occasions to descend into workouts in ticking off rumoured and leaked merchandise.
Nintendo’s desire for tight management of data does, nevertheless, generally cross over into feeling like a parody of itself. The corporate’s statements to this point concerning the successor console to the Swap have been a masterclass in saying nothing in any respect.
Just about the one issues we all know concerning the console (from the horse’s mouth, no less than) are that it’s going to use Nintendo Accounts, as anticipated, and that it will likely be formally announced sometime before March 31, 2025.
From every other firm, such exaggerated secrecy would appear a bit of ridiculous; we’re so used to it from Nintendo that it really looks like a serious concession that the corporate has acknowledged the existence of a Swap successor in any respect.
One side-effect of all this secrecy is that rumours and leaks about Nintendo merchandise are typically particularly extensively reported. That may trigger issues when these stories are inaccurate or, as appears to have occurred repeatedly with the Swap successor, when Nintendo’s inside plans change with none acknowledgement from the corporate itself.
Past the rumours and leaks, although, a bit of cottage trade has additionally sprung up in what successfully quantities to Nintendo Kremlinology, deciphering the indicators and symbols within the agency’s statements and choices to attempt to perceive what it’s planning.
I will have interaction right here in a little bit of unapologetic Nintendology, as a result of whereas the Nintendo Direct showcase we simply noticed was a masterclass in saying exactly nothing concerning the factor folks most wish to hear about, it was additionally a deeply spectacular line-up of software program, and that in itself tells us one thing about how Nintendo sees its technique growing within the subsequent couple of years.
I do not know that anybody anticipated Nintendo to convey their A-game to the summer season showcase to this extent. Most individuals have seen 2024 because the quiet yr after we rely right down to the Swap successor, with Nintendo’s main groups presumably beavering away on video games for that machine. Unveiling new Mario, Zelda, and Metroid titles at this occasion was not on most individuals’s bingo card.
The standard logic was incorrect, then, however it wasn’t unreasonable! Ordinarily, you’d anticipate a platform holder on this place – with its flagship console now in its eighth yr in the marketplace, and successor {hardware} ready within the wings – to be retaining most of its powder dry for the revealing of that new {hardware}. It is necessary, in any case, to have a robust software program line-up within the launch window.
I am undecided anybody anticipated that the long-term help for the Swap would prolong to having new Mario and Zelda in manufacturing
You wish to wow folks with all of the video games you make accessible early within the lifespan of the brand new machine, convincing them that it is well worth the funding on the launch worth. A brand new platform trades on a heady mixture of optimism for the long run, and FOMO. In spite of everything, the advertising tells you, have a look at all the nice video games you would be lacking out on should you did not purchase the brand new {hardware}!
At the least, that is the standard, conventional logic for the way the console trade works.
Lately it has been modified considerably by the lengthening of „lengthy tail“ gross sales of older consoles, the give attention to backwards compatibility, and the introduction of cross-generation flagship titles.
None of these issues are all that new to Nintendo, although. It has all the time been keen to bend and flex the logic of console launches, far earlier than its rivals began to take action. Cross-generation launches could also be a comparatively new factor for the opposite platform holders, however Nintendo has made them right into a central pillar of its launch technique for the reason that GameCube transitioned into the Wii.
There’s nearly all the time a serious title on the launch of a brand new Nintendo platform that is additionally accessible on the prior platform. It performs simply positive on the previous {hardware}, however the advertising can nonetheless faucet into that potent FOMO – in any case, would not you wish to expertise it on the shiny new console?
You do not have to look far on-line to see folks speculating that we have already seen one such sport – does not Metroid Prime 4 look slightly formidable for a Swap sport? Would not it actually shine on some upgraded {hardware}? It is not an unreasonable assumption.
The timeline suits; Metroid is a 2025 title, and all indicators from Nintendo to this point counsel that it is severe about pushing the „We’ll discuss concerning the Swap successor inside this monetary yr“ line as near that March 31 deadline as it will probably, which means that it’s going to not launch new {hardware} till the Swap has seen out its eighth birthday subsequent March.
For a comparatively graphically intensive sport like Metroid Prime 4, a cross-generation launch in that timeframe would make excellent sense, though it will likely be very fascinating to see whether or not that takes the type of a number of SKUs (one for the Swap, one for the successor), or a single SKU optimised for each platforms, alongside the traces of the Good Supply system for the Xbox.
A lot of what we noticed within the Nintendo Direct showcase, nevertheless, is due sooner, and really clearly concentrating on the present console, with no cross-generation shenanigans in proof. That makes for a robust line-up for a console in its latter years, and a reasonably strong riposte to folks (myself included) who assumed Tears of the Kingdom to be the swansong title for the Swap.
Nintendo was by no means going to desert the Swap abruptly – not with that big put in base nonetheless hungry for brand new software program – however I am undecided anybody anticipated that the long-term help for the machine would prolong to having new Mario and Zelda titles in manufacturing for the console.
All of that is extra grist to the Nintendology query of the previous couple of years: how is the successor to the Swap going to be branded, and the way is its launch going to be offered to the general public?
Cross-generational launches for main titles are a given, however maintaining such a robust pipeline of software program for the unique Swap even whereas ramping as much as launch the brand new machine means that Nintendo’s intention is prone to be continuity slightly than revolution.
No matter it’s launching is supposed to tackle the mantle of the Swap slightly than changing it fully, and the robust Swap software program pipeline will simply quantity to extra good video games on the shelf that play properly on its successor machine as effectively.
That matches with what little we all know to this point, which means that the console is kind of a direct successor by way of {hardware} and kind issue, which, if true, is a bit of uncommon for Nintendo.
„Swap 2“ is the apparent branding for such a tool – highlighting compatibility whereas eliminating confusion about whether or not it is a real successor, versus an add-on or a „Professional“ mannequin – however Nintendo usually appears allergic to such apparent branding, and there stays a robust chance of a left-field title.
One main query which may impact the branding of the brand new machine is whether or not Nintendo intends to proceed promoting the unique Swap (maybe at a cheaper price level or in a extra kid-friendly kind issue alongside the traces of the Swap Lite) alongside the brand new era for a major interval. That call could not fully be in Nintendo’s palms, after all; the flexibility to take action might be restricted by chip provide if manufacturing traces for the decade-old Tegra X1 SOCs that energy the Swap are shut down.
What Nintendo is prone to try with this launch is a mix of issues it is performed earlier than – backwards compatibility, important software program overlap for the preliminary launch interval, encouraging lengthy tail gross sales of the present console – with a excessive diploma of platform continuity each in {hardware} and in branding. That is new floor for Nintendo to some extent, however it’s not with out some historic parallels.
Maintaining such a robust pipeline of software program for the unique Swap even whereas ramping as much as launch the brand new machine means that Nintendo’s intention is prone to be continuity slightly than revolution
The DS to 3DS transition was equally about attempting to create a tool with an identification of its personal that would nonetheless assume the mantle of its profitable predecessor, and regardless of a rocky begin (and the core 3D characteristic in the end being ignored as a gimmick), it did work fairly effectively in the long run.
The Wii to Wii U transition had the identical aims, and paired a rocky begin with a rocky center and an abrupt finish, in order that’s precisely the instance Nintendo desires to keep away from – and can also be why so many individuals are questioning what the „Swap 2“ will really be known as, for the reason that consensus within the years for the reason that Wii U launch has been that the branding of the console massively confused many customers and contributed closely to its business failure.
Nintendo is coming off one of the vital profitable eras it has ever had – you may see why they’re so loath to let go of the Swap and transfer on to its successor, however this {hardware} transition has to occur, and getting it proper is essential for the corporate’s success within the coming years.
It is a difficult balancing act, sustaining an current platform with an enormous put in base whereas launching a successor that you simply wish to place as an extension of the model, and there is a nice deal at stake in getting it proper.
On the plus aspect, the one factor unequivocally confirmed by the summer season Nintendo Direct is arguably one of the vital necessary points – Nintendo’s software program pipeline continues to be in sturdy form, nonetheless greater than able to serving up pleasant surprises and getting the corporate’s customers excited for what’s subsequent.
That hasn’t all the time been sufficient to ship business success for the corporate – however as Nintendo gears as much as the problem of the approaching yr, it is a wonderful start line, no less than.